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The Coming Wave

by Mustafa Suleyman

Read: 2025 ยท Category: Technology & Future Studies

Technology, power, and the 21st century's greatest dilemma. Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind and Inflection AI, delivers a urgent warning: a wave of fast-proliferating technologies โ€” artificial intelligence and synthetic biology at the forefront โ€” is about to crash over society. These technologies promise unprecedented prosperity but also threaten to destabilize the nation-state, upend global order, and concentrate power in ways we are not prepared for. The central question: can we contain what we are creating?

1

The Wave: AI + Synthetic Biology

Two exponential technologies converging at once

Suleyman argues that AI and synthetic biology are not separate trends โ€” they are a single wave. AI accelerates the design and discovery of biological systems; synthetic biology provides the physical substrate for AI-driven optimization. Together, they will create capabilities โ€” from protein folding to gene editing to autonomous AI agents โ€” that outpace our governance frameworks. The wave is defined by three properties: ubiquity (everywhere), asymmetry (small actors can cause large effects), and acceleration (faster than any regulatory response).

2

The Containment Problem

Why regulation keeps failing โ€” and what might work

The book's core dilemma: these technologies cannot be stopped (they're too valuable and distributed) but they also cannot be left uncontained (the risks are existential). Suleyman calls this the "containment problem" โ€” the gap between technological capability and society's ability to manage it. He examines why traditional regulation fails: governments are slow, technology moves at digital speed, and enforcement is nearly impossible when code can be shared globally in seconds. The solution, he argues, requires a new category of tools.

3

The Threat to the Nation-State

When technology can topple governments

Suleyman warns that the coming wave threatens the most fundamental unit of modern civilization: the nation-state. When AI can generate synthetic media indistinguishable from reality, when bioweapons can be designed in a garage lab, and when autonomous systems can disrupt critical infrastructure, the state's monopoly on violence and information erodes. The book explores how this could lead to a "great diffusion" of power โ€” not just from governments to corporations, but from institutions to individuals capable of wielding catastrophic force.

4

The Pessimism-Aversion Trap

Ignoring risks doesn't make them go away

A recurring critique in the book: technologists and policymakers suffer from "pessimism-aversion" โ€” an unwillingness to confront worst-case scenarios because they're uncomfortable or because they threaten investment narratives. Suleyman argues that responsible optimism requires facing the darkest possibilities head-on. He contrasts Silicon Valley's "move fast and break things" ethos with the need for "responsible acceleration" โ€” embracing progress while building guardrails, transparency mechanisms, and containment architectures from day one.

5

The Containment Toolkit

Not regulation โ€” containment. There's a difference

Suleyman proposes a practical framework for containment: technical (watermarking AI outputs, air-gapping dangerous systems), regulatory (licensing, audit requirements, liability frameworks), normative (professional ethics codes, international treaties like the Biological Weapons Convention updated for AI), and market-based (insurance requirements, transparency ratings). The argument is not that we can fully contain the wave โ€” but that we have a moral obligation to try, knowing that partial containment is infinitely better than no containment at all.